Research

My research explores the temporal dimension of clientelistic linkages. While existing literature often assumes that clientelism’s main outcome is short-term electoral support, I argue that this view overlooks longer-term dynamics. My findings show that receiving non-programmatic benefits can also shift voters’ policy preferences and ideological proximity toward the benefactor party. Thus, the relationship between ideology and clientelism is more complex than commonly assumed.

An initial book chapter based on preliminary results has been published here. I am currently revising my book manuscript. Two related articles, stemming from my dissertation research

Incumbent parties often control state resources, enabling clientelistic strategies that give them a competitive advantage. My work examines how Turkey’s ruling AK Party employs such strategies compared to opposition parties, using fieldwork conducted in an Istanbul neighborhood.

This research distinguishes relational clientelism from spot-market vote buying, explaining how parties choose between these strategies. Using expert survey data from 88 countries and 506 political parties, I show that relational clientelism is more prevalent in middle-income democracies with competitive politics, while spot-market clientelism is more common in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, state economic intervention has grown alongside rising authoritarian populism. Rather than dismantling markets, leaders often capture them through loyal economic actors, using tools like public procurement.

Analyzing over 867,000 procurement deals in Turkey from 2010 to 2019, I find a significant drop in market competitiveness, visible across all deal sizes, especially after 2013.

While poorer voters are often seen as more receptive to clientelism, social identities can shape this dynamic. My survey experiment in Turkey shows that politicized Kurdish identity, coupled with perceived economic deprivation, makes certain groups more accepting of clientelism. Moreover, it’s not just the amount of benefits that matters—but their quality—in influencing voter support for clientelistic exchanges.

Analyzing news coverage from four Turkish elections (2002–2015), I find that in competitive authoritarian contexts, media increasingly favor the incumbent party. As elections near, the incumbent gains visibility and positive coverage, while other parties receive less attention and fewer parties are covered overall, illustrating press-party parallelism dynamics.

In competitive authoritarian regimes, media often mirror political power. Analyzing news coverage from four Turkish elections (2002–2015), I find that as campaigns progress, the incumbent party’s visibility and positive coverage rise, while other parties receive less attention. Over time, fewer parties get significant coverage, highlighting how press-party parallelism reinforces incumbents in authoritarian contexts.

This study analyzes over 9,000 news articles from fifteen newspapers during Turkey’s 2011 elections to examine press-party parallelism. Findings show that as the campaign progressed, both conservative and opposition papers offered less balanced coverage, reducing pluralism in how the AKP and CHP were represented and covered.

Through a quantitative meta-analysis, I identify a key flaw in the Three Worlds of Welfare literature: a “variable selection problem.” Researchers often choose variables based on data availability rather than theory, especially outside OECD countries, relying on developmental indicators instead of welfare measures. This undermines conceptual clarity and limits comparability, with original Esping-Andersen variables rarely used.

Turkey has been rocked by an election storm. In less than two years since March 2014, the country has had four elections, the most recent taking place on November 1st, 2015. The ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AK Party) won three consecutive elections in 2002, 2007 and 2011 by continuously increasing its vote share from about 34 percent to nearly 50 percent; in doing so it became a rare example of a predominant party in a competitive democracy.1 Following the local and presidential elections in March and August 2014, the AK Party incurred its first significant electoral loss in June 2015, leading to a parliamentary outlook that did not allow for the formation of any government. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan eventually took the decision to hold early or “repeat” elections which eventually led the AK Party to recover its losses in November 2015.

This study examines how ideology shaped party competition during Turkey’s pivotal 2023 elections. Despite complex economic and social issues, ideology remained influential in guiding voter perceptions. The rise of new parties and alliances underscored this relevance, while many voters still struggled to place themselves or parties on the ideological spectrum.

The gender gap in national and local politics is an important problem in numerous countries. Two explanations for the deficit experienced by female politicians relate to demand for women’s representation by political parties and by voters. We argue that the gender gap stems from party-based limitations in local politics. Women do not compete in local politics because relevant parties do not nominate them. We present original data on mayoral candidates who ran in the 2009 and 2014 Turkish local elections. Our findings show that women are less likely to be nominated for office and reasons for this gap originate from party choices rather than lack of electoral support for women.

To explain the changes and continuities in the geographic patterns of the 2018 elections, we present ballot-box and district level data from 2018 and previous elections. We refer to long-term ideological/cultural Differences as well as short-term evaluations about security and the economy in shaping the2018 election results. Even in the face of various important developments, radical changes in the geographic voting patterns do not appear to have taken place. Te incumbent AK Party and its leader, President Erdoğan, continued to have an electoral edge over competitors in regions that mostly overlap with those observed in earlier elections.

Amid Turkey’s debates on shifting to presidentialism, my 2015–2016 survey data reveal that partisanship strongly shapes public opinion on this change, echoing center–periphery divides. Notably, Turkish nationalist voters increasingly supported presidentialism after the June 2015 elections.

Debates over Turkey’s transition to presidentialism intensified after 2015. Using survey data from 2015–2016, I find that partisanship strongly shapes public views on this shift, reflecting broader center–periphery divides in Turkish politics. Notably, Turkish nationalist voters increasingly favored presidentialism following the June 2015 elections.

Analyzing post-Arab Spring elections in five Mediterranean countries, I examine how political cleavages shape party-voter alignment. Using survey data on 30 issues, I find that in authoritarian or transitional contexts like Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, voters’ policy views align less clearly with party choices, unlike in more stable democracies like Turkey and Israel.

Partisan Bias and Conspiracy Theories

This study explores how political bias shapes beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories (CCTs) in Turkey’s polarized context. Survey data from 2020 show that while conspiracy-minded individuals endorse CCTs broadly, party identification and trust in politicized versus independent health authorities influence belief in specific CCTs. Media effects on CCTs also vary based on trust in health authorities, highlighting the role of political partiality.

Biased Perceptions against Women Scientists and Covid-19 Vaccination 

Drawing on role congruity theory, I studied whether gender bias affects vaccine attitudes in Turkey. In an experiment with 665 participants, men holding traditional gender views perceived the BioNTech vaccine as less safe and effective when its invention was attributed to a female scientist. No such effect appeared among women, revealing how gender bias can shape health decisions and pose risks for public health.

Cross-National Support for Education Spending 

Using survey experiments in five OECD countries, I examine how trade-offs with other welfare areas affect support for education spending. While public backing for education is generally strong, it declines notably when increased spending requires cuts to healthcare, pensions, or unemployment benefits. Factors like age, income, ideology, and labor market status shape these preferences.